The events in the Middle East have been something of a watershed in world history. Whether it's for the better or worse remains to be seen. Egypt is of particular significance to the United States due to its shared border with Israel and Egyptian influence over the Suez Canal. Stability in the Middle East is an American imperative due to the rich oil supply and American lack of energy/oil independence. The United States has a fairly strong alliance with Egypt and Israel a cold peace. The eruptions and protests that exploded this past week in Egypt make its future an enigma. As someone who loathes arbitrary rule and totalitarianism watching it implode is exciting. But, understanding the nature of revolutions, one has to wonder once the farmer is tossed off the farm if there isn’t a Napoleon and Snowball waiting in the wings. The situation on the ground has been a mixture of euphoria and widespread lawlessness – theft, destruction of state and private property, and violence. All of this may be a blowing off of pent up steam and the actual beginning of a liberal democracy. That, however, would be contrary to what's followed revolutions in other middle eastern countries over the past several decades. The terrorist organization Hezbollah, for a recent example, won elections in Lebanon in 2005. The displacement of the Shah of Iran back in the Carter era gave rise to the anti Western government now lead by Ahmadinejad. On a side note, it seems odd that there was little support from Western leaders when demonstrators organized against that regime in Tehran. For Egypt, there are few, if any, relevant political organizations capable of filling the power/administrative vacuum outside of the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. In an environment where it’s hard to get food and thugs threaten families and homes it’s all too easy to give credence to the wrong kind of leadership. Still, a secular democracy is what we hope for – not just for the Egyptians – but for Israel and everyone else. We have to hope Egyptians plug there ears when Napoleon, or whatever name he calls himself, starts oinking.
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Nice overview. It truly is anyone's guess as to what sort of government will take hold. I think the best form for Egypt would be proportional democracy. This way no one political force takes place--power is shared among several groups which are forced to work together.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Muslim Brotherhood, from what I studied in my undergrad, while it is a consolidated group, it is a minority even among Muslims. I have a friend at school that is Egyptian, and a Coptic Christian, who has family still in Egypt. She tells me the same thing. One story that was good to hear was that her Aunt who owns a pharmacy there has been having her store protected from looters by a group of Muslim men. They know that the owner is Christian, but they told her that they don't care--that they want to help anyway. Hopefully that is a common thing going on there.